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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."